Super Tuesday

Here's what to watch for when the results role in tonight for Super Tuesday results on the Republican side.

First let's look at the current delegate count (1,191 needed to win)

Delegates already won
McCain 97
Romney 92
Huckabee 29

Now let's look at the states which are first-past-the-post or winner-take-all and who is leading based on the Real Clear Politics Average of recent polls. We will see McCain has a huge edge here.


Winner Take All States RCP AVG
*New York 101 McCain +31
*Missouri 58 McCain +5.5
*Arizona 53 McCain +16
*New Jersey 52 McCain +26
*Utah 36 Romney (no polling)
*Connecticut 30 McCain +22
*Montana 25 McCain +18
*Delaware 18 McCain +18

So if these polling numbers hold, McCain will lead Romney 434 to 128
The best-case scenario looking at these numbers is Romney steals Missouri from McCain (Arizona is the only other state in play and no one thinks McCain is going to lose on his home turf).

So if Romney wins Missouri, the standings look like this 376 to 186. McCain still has a 2-1 advantage.

Proportional States RCP Average Delegate breakdown
California 173 McC 37 Rom 37 Huck 10 McC 64 Rom 64 Huck 10
Georgia 72 Mc 32 Rom 29 Huck 25 McC 23 Rom 21 Huck 18
Illinois 70 McC 39 Rom 23 Huck 15 McC 27 Rom 16 Huck 11
Tennessee 55 McC 29 Rom 23 Huck 26 McC 16 Rom 13 Huck 14
Alabama 48 McC 38 Rom 19 Huck 33 McC 18 Rom 9 Huck 16
Colorado 46 McC 24 Rom 43 Huck 17 McC 11 Rom 20 Huck 8
Massachusetts 43 McC 32 Rom 54 Huck 5 McC 17 Rom 23 Huck 2
Minnesota 41 McC 41 Rom 17 Huck 22 McC 17 Rom 7 Huck 9
Oklahoma 41 McC 37 Rom 23 Huck 32 McC 15 Rom 9 Huck 13
(a)Arkansas 34 McC 20 Rom 35 Huck 45 McC 7 Rom 12 Huck 15
(b)West Virginia 30 McC 43 Rom 25 Huck 18 McC 13 Rom 8 Huck 5
(b)Alaska 29 McC 43 Rom 25 Huck 18 McC 12 Rom 7 Huck 5
(b)North Dakota 26 McC 43 Rom 25 Huck 18 McC 11 Rom 7 Huck 5

a) No polling. Gave Huck the win
b) No polling. Based results of RCP National numbers

Total McCain 256 Romney 215 Huck 125

In total, McCain is expected to have 632 Romney Romney 401.

The only way for Romney to catch McCain tonight would be to have a 16 per cent swing in his favour at McCain's expense in each of these other states. Not likely.