On the eve of Canada's federal election, blogger Canadian Blue Lemons tells it like it is:
I can show the math: that the CPC has to win 155 of 200 seats (assuming - correctly I think - that the party will not win a seat in Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver nor the safe non-big-city Liberal, NDP & PQ seats). Earlier in a post I said 155 of 168, but I'm being generous this rainy morning. Such a sweep - a campaign without seats in the big 3 cities - has never come close to being done.
I myself have looked at all the ridings before the 2006 election. The last time a Canadian conservative party won a majority government was in 1988 and that was with seats in downtown Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver. The Tories have slim hopes of winning seats in these big cities.